Built on public U.S. Department of Education data
Know where you actually stand.
Most chance calculators hand you a confident number and hide how they got it. Northstar gives you a range, shows every factor that moved it, and tells you plainly when it doesn't know.
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A real example
A Texas student — 3.82 unweighted, 1450 SAT, 7 APs, state-level robotics leader, first-generation, applying to engineering. These numbers were produced by the actual model, not written by a marketing team.
- Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyFar reachabout 2%likely between 1% and 3%0%100%
School-wide admit rate 4.5% — this student's estimate differs because of residency, intended major and academic profile.
- The University of Texas at AustinTargetabout 52%likely between 45% and 59%0%100%
School-wide admit rate 26.6% — this student's estimate differs because of residency, intended major and academic profile.
- University of Michigan-Ann ArborReachabout 13%likely between 10% and 17%0%100%
School-wide admit rate 15.6% — this student's estimate differs because of residency, intended major and academic profile.
- Texas A&M University-College StationSafetyabout 85%likely between 82% and 89%0%100%
School-wide admit rate 57.4% — this student's estimate differs because of residency, intended major and academic profile.
Four things we do differently
Each of these exists because the alternative is common, and quietly misleads students.
We show the working
Every estimate breaks down into named factors, each labelled with where its evidence came from — your input, published college data, or our own model.
We give a range
A single percentage implies precision nobody has. You get an interval, and it widens honestly when your profile is incomplete or the school is extremely selective.
We say when we don't know
If a college doesn't publish an admission rate, we tell you so instead of quietly assuming 50% and reporting it with confidence.
We coach, we don't ghostwrite
The essay tool asks you questions and points at your own sentences. It will not write your application for you, and it will not help you hide that something was written by a machine.
What actually moves the number
Chance calculators routinely ignore the factors that matter most. These are all in the model:
- In-state vs out-of-state residency. Decisive at public flagships, several of which cap out-of-state enrolment by policy.
- Intended major. Computer science and nursing are admitted far more competitively than the school-wide rate suggests.
- Early Decision and Early Action. A real statistical edge at selective schools — and a binding commitment we warn you about.
- Course rigor in context. Weighted GPA is read as evidence of harder classes, never compared against an unweighted school average.
- Activities scored by depth. Scope, role, years and recognition — so listing twelve clubs doesn't outrank three years of genuine commitment.
What we deliberately don't do
- We don't let race or ethnicity move your estimate. The field is optional and does exactly one thing: show how a campus breaks down. It is not read by the essay coach either — this page used to say it was, and that was never true. A test asserts identical results across every category, at every level of selectivity.
- We don't claim a success rate. We have no way to verify what happens to you after you apply, so any figure we published would be marketing, not evidence.
- We don't show testimonials we can't stand behind. When real students want to be quoted, we'll ask them first.
- We don't display college logos. We have no affiliation with these institutions, and implying otherwise would be dishonest.
Questions
- How accurate is this?
- It is a statistical estimate, not a prediction. We anchor every calculation to the college's own published admission rate and adjust it using your academic profile, residency, intended major and application round. What we cannot see — your essays, your recommendations, and what a particular college happens to need that year — is genuinely a large share of the decision. That is why every estimate comes with a range, and why the range narrows as you tell us more.
- Where does the college data come from?
- The U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard, which is public-domain federal data. Admission rates and SAT/ACT ranges are exactly as reported by each institution. We do not hand-edit the figures, and where the federal data has a gap we show a gap rather than filling it in.
- Will you write my college essay?
- No. Northstar measures your draft — length, rhythm, concrete detail, clichés, where you start reflecting — gives it a checklist score out of 100 that says exactly what cost what, and asks you the questions worth sitting with, the way a good teacher would. It cannot judge whether your story lands, and it will not draft a sentence for you to paste in. The Common Application requires you to affirm the essay is your own work, and a tool that helps you break that affirmation is not helping you.
- What does it cost?
- Nothing today, and there is no way to pay us. From 15 December 2026 at the earliest there will be one optional purchase, a season pass with no subscription, for comparison, exports and more AI essay feedback. Your estimates, the breakdown behind each one, the quick check, your list, the matcher and the essay measurements stay free for everyone. See the terms for the details.
- What do you do with my data?
- Your email address goes to no one else: the site sends no emails at the moment. Everything else — your grades, courses, activities, saved colleges, your estimates and every word of your essays — stays in Northstar’s own database. The site runs on Vercel's servers and its database is held by Supabase, so your data is stored on and passes through their systems. Your essays are not sent to any AI service unless you press the button on a draft that asks Cloudflare’s AI for a second opinion, which sends that one draft and nothing about you; Cloudflare says it does not keep or train on it. An earlier version did send them to Google for coaching, and that was removed. We sell nothing to anyone, there is no advertising, and the only visit counting is anonymous and uses no cookies. Ethnicity is optional and changes nothing about your odds — it only shows how a campus breaks down. Household income is optional too, but it is not neutral: it drives the net-price figure, and filling it in narrows the range on your estimate, which can move a college between tiers. You can export everything or delete it permanently at any time, and deletion is immediate rather than a 30-day queue.
- Is Northstar affiliated with any of these colleges?
- No. Northstar has no relationship with any college or university, with the Common Application, or with the U.S. Department of Education. College names appear only to identify the institutions.